The extreme heat in Punjab and rising local prices could potentially affect India’s wheat exports this year
The extreme heat in Punjab and rising local prices could potentially affect India’s wheat exports this year
At a time when India is trying to fill the world’s wheat stores, depleted by the Ukraine-Russia war, two new developments in Punjab this year could potentially reduce its export levels. First, evidence from Punjab shows that wheat arrivals in Mandis have decreased by 20% this year compared to 2021. The main reason for the decline is the extreme heat. The average temperature in April was consistently above 40°C throughout Punjab. This has significantly reduced the wheat yield this year. Second, local wheat and wheat flour prices are accelerating. These two factors could dampen India’s wheat export plans as India prioritizes local availability of wheat while aiming to lower market prices.
wheat arrivals
| The chart shows wheat arrivals in Punjab’s Mandis in the first twenty days of the 2021 and 2022 seasons. During this period, 73 lakh metric tons of wheat reached the Mandis in 2022, down 20% from the 92.4 lakh recorded in 2021 became
Diagram appears incomplete? Click here to remove AMP mode
Rising prices
| The chart shows wholesale inflation of wheat and consumer inflation of wheat flour in India. Wholesale inflation was over 14% and retail inflation was 7.77% in March 2022, both the highest since April 2017
heat map
The map shows the temperature anomaly in Punjab between April 8th and 14th compared to the long-term average. In most places, the maximum temperature was above 6°C than usual
yield slumps
Harvest trials show that the state’s wheat yield has fallen this year due to the extreme heat. Last year, wheat productivity was 19.7 quintals per acre, while the average yield this year is under 18 quintals per acre. However, of the 2,000 cutting attempts, only 1,200 have been completed to date
Source: Punjab Mandi Board, MOSPI, IMD Chandigarh, Punjab Agriculture Department
Also Read: Explained | Why is India trying to boost wheat exports?
