There are several NFL teams that could use a great receiver, and with the success of rookies Justin Jefferson in 2020 and Ja’Marr Chase in 2021, many of these receiver-needy teams might be inclined to look for one of the many talented receivers in to grab the draft class 2022.
That being said, there are only three first-round consensus recipients: Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson, Alabama’s Jameson Williams, and USC’s Drake London. As talented as Chris Olave, Christian Watson, Treylon Burks and all the other boys in this year’s class areonly these three are expected to compete on Day 1.
The order in which these three recipients will go is still up for debate. Most websites seem to think that Wilson will come first, Williams second and London third. After both OddsChecker USA, Wilson has a +105 chance (48.8 percent chance) of being the first receiver to be taken. He is followed by Williams at +200 (33.3 percent chance) and then London at +220 (31.3 percent chance). These odds don’t seem too far apart, but remember this is Vegas and they like to do this stuff so as not to lose money if something crazy happens. In reality, Wilson’s +105 odds mean he’s the clear favorite to be the first wide receiver, while not an outlier.
However, Mike Tannenbaum, former GM of the New York Jets, sees things differently. Tannenbaum, who also served as the Miami Dolphins’ VP of Football Operations between 2015 and 2018, was then formed The 33rd team, believes London will not only be the first receiver to be knocked off the board, but will make the top-10. “London will go to the Falcons [at 8]’ says Tannenbaum. “Wilson to the Jets [at 10] and Williams to the Ravens at 14.”
That would be a shock. Not just because of the order these recipients went in, but also because they were taken so early. The over/under for London is currently 10.5, but according to OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, London “has an expectation that it will go above that”. Very few draft analysts and pundits actually expect London to get anywhere near the top 10.
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It’s puzzling. Do odds makers and Tannenbaum know something the rest of the world doesn’t? Odds makers are usually pretty good at this kind of stuff. If they weren’t, they would go bankrupt. In 2021, Vegas odds makers perfectly predicted the first six picks of the draft. However, 2021 was a much more predictable class than 2022, so it stands to reason that there is some truth behind Tannenbaum’s statement.
At the same time, while the oddsmakers flawlessly predicted the first six picks last year, they didn’t make any correct picks until Rashawn Slater left at 13 for the Chargers. So while the odds makers believe London will leave sooner rather than later, they can never be sure. However, based on what we’re hearing, it might be worth placing a bet on London being the first recipient chosen. Its over-under is a lot lower than many people thought, and with someone as close to drafting as Tannenbaum claiming that London backs up that projection, if you had to bet some money, London would probably be the best bang for your buck down. For myself, however, I still cling to the idea that Wilson will be the first to leave.
