Given the increasing demand for electricity, what is the outlook for the renewable energy sector?
Given the increasing demand for electricity, what is the outlook for the renewable energy sector?
The story so far: On Friday, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, urging him to ensure an adequate supply of coal to power generation units in the state. In Maharashtra, Deputy Prime Minister Ajit Pawar said the state government plans to import coal to deal with the power crisis. The other state with the largest electricity consumption in the country, Gujarat, is also reportedly planning to import coal. The decline in coal stocks and resulting power outages in several states have prompted inquiries about the potential of renewable energy to replace conventional resources. Earlier this week, coal stocks at more than 100 thermal power plants in India fell below the critical level (less than 25% of required stock), while at over 50 plants across India they were below 10%. On Saturday, Minister of Coal and Mines Pralhad Joshi said there are currently 72.5 million tonnes (MT) of coal available at various sources from Coal India, Singareni Collieries and Coal Washers and 22.01 MT at Thermal Power Plants. “There is enough coal in the country for over a month, replenished daily with record production,” he tweeted.
Is there a coal crisis?
According to Mr. Joshi, coal accounts for 55% of the country’s energy needs. The India Energy Outlook 2021 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) states that energy consumption in India has doubled since 2000, with 80% of demand still being met by coal, oil and solid biomass. However, pandemic-related disruptions prevented stockpiling of coal. Mining operations have been halted to curb the spread of the virus. Despite the gradual easing of operations, mining activities were hampered during the monsoon, delaying the arrival of stocks. With the increasing household demand for electricity and the arrival of summer, this combined with the sudden acceleration of economic activity has created a demand-supply mismatch. The country had experienced a similar situation last October, but as mid-summer approaches, the situation of coal stocks is now more worrying as demand for electricity will be high. Energy demand will increase with increasing urbanization and population growth. The IEA estimates that despite the shock from COVID-19, India’s demand is expected to grow at almost 5% per year through 2040.
What is the consumer behavior like?
Coal is abundant, has shorter maturity periods, and coal-based power plants have lower capital costs than Hydel and nuclear power plants, making them the most viable enabler of energy security in the country. Capacity expansion of the conventional resource is further supported by increased private sector involvement in power generation. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently said in Washington that India’s move away from coal is being hampered by the war in Ukraine. At the recently concluded budget meeting, Mr Joshi said: “Despite the push for renewable energy [the] The country will need baseload capacity of coal-based power generation for stability and also for energy security.”
Where does India stand on renewable energy sources?
The Central Electricity Authority report on the optimal mix of generation capacity for 2029-30 estimates that the share of renewable energy in gross electricity generation is expected to be around 40% by this fiscal year. The Union Government has spent £3,793 million as of March 14, 2021-22 to implement various plans and programs related to renewable energy.
A total of 152.90 GW of renewable energy capacity had been installed in the country as of Feb. 28, according to government figures. This includes 50.78 GW from solar, 40.13 GW from wind, 10.63 GW from bio, 4.84 GW from small Hydel power plants and 46.52 GW from large Hydel power plants. According to the Prime Minister’s announcement at COP26 (the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2021), the Department of New and Renewable Energy aims to install 500 GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2030.
In 2020-21, according to CEA, total generation was 1,381.83 billion units (bu), of which the share of renewable energy sources was 297.55 bu – representing 21.5% of total generation. By August 2021, the share was 24%. “Over the next 10 years, the strong growth of renewable energy in the given policy scenario is insufficient to keep up with the projected pace of electricity demand growth, and power generation from coal makes the difference…” the IEA said in its report on India .
What are the challenges?
A plant’s capacity does not necessarily correspond to the actual electricity production it generates for the grid, some of which is lost to external factors such as heat or transmission losses. This applies to both renewable and conventional sources.
Solar and wind power are variable resources, with “variability” being particularly exposed during periods of peak demand. For example, solar energy is abundant during the day in summer. However, household consumption is highest in the evening when we turn on the air conditioning after work. Since there is no sunlight outside, there is a mismatch between energy demand and supply. Another dimension is seasonal variation. During monsoons, solar energy is scarce and wind energy is plentiful.
Another factor is spatial variability. Coastal regions enjoy more wind and therefore possess a greater ability to generate wind energy, such as Gujarat, compared to states that are drier and experience more sunlight, such as Rajasthan. The use of renewable energies would therefore essentially require a balancing act.
What about transfer and storage?
Transmission and storage are key to addressing variability issues. They help meet the “duck curve” electricity needs of consumers in India. The duck-like curve is a graphical representation that shows the difference between demand and availability of energy throughout the day. Since both wind and sun are variable sources, it is imperative to create a complementary model. This would require import and export technologies between states and the optimization of trade between states with different demand and production profiles. “Thermal power plants in the eastern region, on the other hand, offer flexibility for demand centers in the south and west, which have high industrial and agricultural loads and can fall back on imports during periods of low renewable energy availability,” says the IEA.
They further add: “India’s national infrastructure is not designed to accommodate so many fluctuations in energy production. The grid is used to constant supply from thermal power plants, which is diametrically opposed to intermittent generation from solar PV, wind turbines and other renewable energies.”
How does the cost factor work?
The transition to renewable energy would depend heavily on promoting energy-efficient behavior such as B. the operation of air conditioning systems for both commercial and private use, more flexible throughout the day and the choice of energy-efficient products. Cooling systems become a utility in the summer, but usage is split between higher and lower income households, with the former being more economically secure and choosing to run them throughout the day. A demand-response program along these lines would help address such issues and keep external factors constant. In addition, lifestyle changes to reduce energy requirements would also be essential; An example of this could be the “Cool Biz Campaign” in Japan, which allows employees to wear light and casual clothing to work instead of the traditional jackets and ties to reduce the need for air conditioning. According to government data, India has seen record-low tariffs of ₹1.99 per KWh for solar power and ₹2.43 per KWh for wind power – much cheaper compared to electricity from conventional sources.
