Goldman raises crude oil price forecast, Barclays, Rystad warn of $200 oil

The world may be facing one of the “greatest energy supply shocks of all time,” says Goldman

The world may be facing one of the “greatest energy supply shocks of all time,” says Goldman

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent oil price forecasts, saying the world could face one of the “biggest energy supply shocks ever” due to the Ukraine crisis, while Barclays said worst-case scenario prices could surpass $200 a barrel.

Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy also said Brent could soar to $200 if Europe and the United States ban Russian oil imports.

Goldman raised its 2022 spot Brent price forecast to $135 a barrel from $98 and its 2023 forecast to $115 from $105.

More than half of Russia’s March shipments have so far been reported unsold, and if this continues, it could mean a 3 million barrels per day (bpd) drop in Russia’s crude oil and product exports, the fifth biggest disruption in a month since Second World War. the bank said in a note.

The United States and Europe have not imposed sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports, but many buyers are reluctant to make purchases to avoid being indirectly implicated in sanctions, while Washington has said it can act alone to ban Russian oil imports.

Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, ships about 7 million barrels of crude oil and oil products per day.

“In the short term, managing such a supply shock would require the combined help of global strategic reserves, core OPEC, Iran and higher prices to reduce consumption,” Goldman said.

Barclays said a worst-case disruption to most Russian crude supplies at sea could send prices above $200, although it did not revise its 2022 Brent forecast, saying “the situation remains very volatile”.

Oil prices surged above $130 on Tuesday on expectations that the United States would officially ban Russian oil imports.

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